In March 2024, cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange breached $12,000 per metric tonne, a level not seen since the late 1970s. By August, they had retreated to $7,500. For the farmers, cooperatives, and export companies of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, who together supply around 60% of the world's cocoa, this 50% swing in less than six months encapsulates the brutal volatility that defines their industry.
The price spike was driven by a combination of El Niño-related weather disruption, black pod disease outbreaks, and speculative positioning. The correction that followed reflected improved weather forecasts for the next crop cycle and demand destruction as chocolate manufacturers reformulated to reduce cocoa content in response to record input costs.
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Structural Vulnerabilities
Ghana's COCOBOD, the state cocoa marketing board, operates a fixed-price system under which it announces a producer price at the start of each season. This provides farmers with income predictability but leaves COCOBOD exposed to world market swings when it has forward-sold at lower prices. In 2023/24, COCOBOD found itself locked into forward sales contracts below the market peak, generating significant losses and triggering a financing crisis.
Côte d'Ivoire's Coffee-Cocoa Council operates a similar system. Both countries are now revisiting their marketing frameworks, with some officials signalling openness to differential pricing mechanisms that share more of the upside with farmers while maintaining baseline income guarantees.
Value Addition: The Long-Term Answer
Both countries have for decades complained that they export raw cocoa beans while European processors, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, capture the vast majority of the value chain. A kilogram of cocoa beans might sell for $7. A kilogram of premium dark chocolate made from those beans retails for $50-200.
Domestic grinding capacity has been growing. Ghana now grinds around 30% of its crop domestically, producing cocoa butter, cocoa powder, and cocoa liquor for export. The government's "Ghana Beyond Aid" strategy explicitly targets 50% local grinding by 2030. Côte d'Ivoire has made similar commitments. If achieved, this shift would materially change the trade balance in cocoa's favour for both countries.
Market Diversification
Historically, West African cocoa flowed almost exclusively to Europe and North America. Asian demand, from China, India, and Southeast Asia, is growing rapidly. Both COCOBOD and the Coffee-Cocoa Council have opened representative offices in Shanghai and Mumbai to develop direct buyer relationships in these markets.
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